Just musing idly on the latest FIFA rankings, compiled in May. Here are the top 20 countries, along with their progress (where appropriate) in the World Cup…
1. Brazil — quarter finals
2. Czech Republic — group stage
3. Netherlands — second round
4. Mexico — second round
5= USA — group stage
5= Spain — second round
7. Portugal — quarter finals
8. France — quarter finals
9. Argentina — quarter finals
10. England — quarter finals
11. Nigeria — did not qualify
12. Denmark — did not qualify
13. Italy — quarter finals
14. Turkey — did not qualify
15. Cameroon — did not qualify
16. Sweden — second round
17. Egypt — did not qualify
18. Japan — group stage
19. Germany — quarter finals
20. Greece — did not qualify
…
45. Ukraine — quarter finals
So what can we learn from that? Well, one of the main things to bear in mind is that football is a “funny old game”. Egypt are African champions but did not qualify, while most of the African teams present at Germany 2006 did poorly in this year’s African Cup of Nations. Ukraine have progressed far beyond expectations despite looking stodgy and uninspired, while the Czech Republic would need to be finalists to justify their ranking.
Then there’s the method by which the rankings are compiled… all first class international matches (tournaments, qualifiers and friendlies) over the past eight years. Now, for teams such as Brazil or Spain, whose form has been consistent one way or another, the results are fairly predictable (Spain’s excellent form in qualifiers is counterbalanced by their dismal form in knockout matches). But take Turkey, for example… with their wildly erratic form, they failed to qualify in 1998 and 2006, but came third in 2002. Your ranking can suddenly change as the eight-year window passes over an unusually good or bad period.
And then there’s the “weighting” system. Rankings are based on their seven “best” results for each year, with points gained for a win varying according to the quality of the opponent. Teams playing in competitions in Europe or South America are more likely to come up against stiffer challenges, winning fewer matches. In the CONCACAF region, Mexico and USA are clearly the top dogs, but they have plenty of opportunities to gain points, as many of the other highly ranked teams will be comparative minnows.
However, as we all know, the rankings are rendered completely meaningless by the presence of a superior, more accurate and more rigorous rating system… ladies and gentlemen, the pub pundit!